Male Twin Live Births Following Unconditional Cash Transfers in Alaska: A Time-Series Analysis

By: Parvati Singh, Nicholas Mark, and Sarah K. Cowan

Published in: Twin Research and Human Genetics, 1-8

Prior studies report a decline in male twin live births during economically stressful periods, presumably owing to higher selection in utero against frail male gestations, yet no study has examined the natural corollary: whether provision of economic support increases rates of male twin births. We examined whether male twin live births increase following income gains from the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)—the longest running unconditional cash transfer program in the US. We obtained the monthly volume of male (and female) twin and singleton live births, from January 1980 to December 2019, from Alaska’s Department of Health. Data on PFD timing and payment amounts came from Alaska’s Department of Revenue. We used time-series analyses to gauge whether the odds of male twin live births increase within 2−6 months following PFD receipt, controlling for autocorrelation. Results suggest that for every $1000 increase in PFD payments, the odds of male twin live births increase by 0.002 (p < .05) three months following PFD disbursement. This corresponds with 50 additional (individual) male twin live births statistically attributable to the cumulative PFD amount disbursed over our study period. Income gains through the PFD may correspond with reduced male-specific selection in utero in Alaska.

Estimating the Effect of a Universal Cash Transfer on Birth Outcomes

By: Kiara Wyndham-Douds, and Sarah K. Cowan

Published in: American Sociological Review 89 (5), 789-819

Babies in the United States fare worse than their peers in other high-income countries, and their well-being is starkly unequal along socioeconomic and racialized lines. Newborn health predicts adult well-being, making these inequalities consequential. Policymakers and scholars seeking to improve newborn health and reduce inequality have recently looked to direct cash transfers as a viable intervention. We examine the only unconditional cash transfer in the United States, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), to learn if giving pregnant people money improves their newborns’ health. Alaska has paid its residents a significant dividend annually since 1982. The dividend’s size varies yearly and is exogenous to Alaskans and the local economy, permitting us to make causal claims. After accounting for fertility selection, we find that receiving cash during pregnancy has no meaningful effect on newborn health. Current theory focuses on purchasing power and status mechanisms to delineate how money translates into health. It cannot illuminate this null finding. This case illustrates a weakness with current theory: it does not provide clear expectations for interventions. We propose four components that must be considered in tandem to predict whether proposed interventions will work.